{"id":324,"date":"2026-07-07T00:37:49","date_gmt":"2026-07-06T16:37:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/xuzbo.top\/?p=324"},"modified":"2026-07-08T21:20:27","modified_gmt":"2026-07-08T13:20:27","slug":"%e7%bd%91%e7%bb%9c%e5%b9%b2%e6%89%b0%e4%b8%8b%e5%9f%ba%e4%ba%8eot%e7%9a%84%e5%9b%a0%e6%9e%9c%e6%95%88%e5%ba%94%e4%bc%b0%e8%ae%a1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/xuzbo.top\/index.php\/2026\/07\/07\/%e7%bd%91%e7%bb%9c%e5%b9%b2%e6%89%b0%e4%b8%8b%e5%9f%ba%e4%ba%8eot%e7%9a%84%e5%9b%a0%e6%9e%9c%e6%95%88%e5%ba%94%e4%bc%b0%e8%ae%a1\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7f51\u7edc\u5e72\u6270\u4e0b\u57fa\u4e8e\u6700\u4f18\u4f20\u8f93\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u4f30\u8ba1\u7814\u7a76-\u5b9e\u9a8c"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"http:\/\/xuzbo.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/slide.pdf\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"http:\/\/xuzbo.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/slide.pdf\">PPT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"%25e6%2595%25b0%25e6%258d%25ae%25e7%2594%259f%25e6%2588%2590%25e6%259c%25ba%25e5%2588%25b6\"><strong>\u6570\u636e\u751f\u6210\u673a\u5236<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-vertical is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-4fc3f8e1 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-vertical is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-4fc3f8e1 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u5408\u6210\u5b9e\u9a8c<\/strong>\u4e2d\uff0c\u5904\u7406\u5206\u914d\u6982\u7387\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e2a\u4f53\u534f\u53d8\u91cf <math data-latex=\"X_i\"><semantics><msub><mi>X<\/mi><mi>i<\/mi><\/msub><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">X_i<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math>\u3001\u90bb\u5c45\u534f\u53d8\u91cf <math data-latex=\"\\bar{X}_{N(i)}\"><semantics><msub><mover><mi>X<\/mi><mo stretchy=\"false\" class=\"tml-capshift\" style=\"math-style:normal;math-depth:0;\">\u203e<\/mo><\/mover><mrow><mi>N<\/mi><mo form=\"prefix\" stretchy=\"false\">(<\/mo><mi>i<\/mi><mo form=\"postfix\" stretchy=\"false\" lspace=\"0em\" rspace=\"0em\">)<\/mo><\/mrow><\/msub><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">\\bar{X}_{N(i)}<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math>\u3001\u5ea6\u6570 <math data-latex=\"d_i\"><semantics><msub><mi>d<\/mi><mi>i<\/mi><\/msub><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">d_i<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math>\u3001\u793e\u7fa4\u5f52\u5c5e <math data-latex=\"C_i\"><semantics><msub><mi>C<\/mi><mi>i<\/mi><\/msub><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">C_i<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math>\u548c\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u4ea4\u4e92\u9879\uff0c <math data-latex=\"\\gamma\"><semantics><mi>\u03b3<\/mi><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">\\gamma<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math> \u63a7\u5236\u7f51\u7edc\u6df7\u6742\u5f3a\u5ea6\u3002\u7b80\u5316\u8868\u8fbe\u4e3a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><math data-latex=\"P(T_i=1\\mid X,G)=\\operatorname{logit}^{-1}\\{\\gamma \\cdot f(X_i,\\bar{X}_{N(i)},d_i,C_i)\"><semantics><mrow><mi>P<\/mi><mo form=\"prefix\" stretchy=\"false\">(<\/mo><msub><mi>T<\/mi><mi>i<\/mi><\/msub><mo>=<\/mo><mn>1<\/mn><mo lspace=\"0.22em\" rspace=\"0.22em\" stretchy=\"false\">|<\/mo><mi>X<\/mi><mo separator=\"true\">,<\/mo><mi>G<\/mi><mo form=\"postfix\" stretchy=\"false\">)<\/mo><mo>=<\/mo><msup><mi>logit<\/mi><mrow><mo lspace=\"0em\" rspace=\"0em\">\u2212<\/mo><mn>1<\/mn><\/mrow><\/msup><mo>\u2061<\/mo><mo form=\"prefix\" stretchy=\"false\">{<\/mo><mi>\u03b3<\/mi><mo>\u22c5<\/mo><mi>f<\/mi><mo form=\"prefix\" stretchy=\"false\">(<\/mo><msub><mi>X<\/mi><mi>i<\/mi><\/msub><mo separator=\"true\">,<\/mo><msub><mover><mi>X<\/mi><mo stretchy=\"false\" class=\"tml-capshift\" style=\"math-style:normal;math-depth:0;\">\u203e<\/mo><\/mover><mrow><mi>N<\/mi><mo form=\"prefix\" stretchy=\"false\">(<\/mo><mi>i<\/mi><mo form=\"postfix\" stretchy=\"false\" lspace=\"0em\" rspace=\"0em\">)<\/mo><\/mrow><\/msub><mo separator=\"true\">,<\/mo><msub><mi>d<\/mi><mi>i<\/mi><\/msub><mo separator=\"true\">,<\/mo><msub><mi>C<\/mi><mi>i<\/mi><\/msub><mo form=\"postfix\" stretchy=\"false\">)<\/mo><\/mrow><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">P(T_i=1\\mid X,G)=\\operatorname{logit}^{-1}\\{\\gamma \\cdot f(X_i,\\bar{X}_{N(i)},d_i,C_i)<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7ed3\u679c\u751f\u6210\u6a21\u578b\u5305\u542b\u57fa\u7ebf\u7ed3\u679c\u3001\u90bb\u5c45\u5f71\u54cd-\u66b4\u9732\u6548\u5e94 <math data-latex=\"\\lambda E_i\"><semantics><mrow><mi>\u03bb<\/mi><msub><mi>E<\/mi><mi>i<\/mi><\/msub><\/mrow><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">\\lambda E_i<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math>\u3001\u81ea\u8eab\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94 <math data-latex=\"T_i\\tau_i\"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>T<\/mi><mi>i<\/mi><\/msub><msub><mi>\u03c4<\/mi><mi>i<\/mi><\/msub><\/mrow><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">T_i\\tau_i<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math> \u4ee5\u53ca\u5904\u7406\u4e0e\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u3001\u5ea6\u6570\u3001\u90bb\u5c45\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u548c\u66b4\u9732\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4ea4\u4e92\uff08<math data-latex=\"T_iX_i, T_id_i\u7b49\"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>T<\/mi><mi>i<\/mi><\/msub><msub><mi>X<\/mi><mi>i<\/mi><\/msub><mo separator=\"true\">,<\/mo><msub><mi>T<\/mi><mi>i<\/mi><\/msub><msub><mi>d<\/mi><mi>i<\/mi><\/msub><mtext>\u7b49<\/mtext><\/mrow><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">T_iX_i, T_id_i\u7b49<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math>\uff09\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><math data-latex=\"Y_i=\\mu_0(X_i,\\bar{X}_{N(i)},d_i,C_i)+\\lambda E_i+T_i\\tau_i+\\varepsilon_i\"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>Y<\/mi><mi>i<\/mi><\/msub><mo>=<\/mo><msub><mi>\u03bc<\/mi><mn>0<\/mn><\/msub><mo form=\"prefix\" stretchy=\"false\">(<\/mo><msub><mi>X<\/mi><mi>i<\/mi><\/msub><mo separator=\"true\">,<\/mo><msub><mover><mi>X<\/mi><mo stretchy=\"false\" class=\"tml-capshift\" style=\"math-style:normal;math-depth:0;\">\u203e<\/mo><\/mover><mrow><mi>N<\/mi><mo form=\"prefix\" stretchy=\"false\">(<\/mo><mi>i<\/mi><mo form=\"postfix\" stretchy=\"false\" lspace=\"0em\" rspace=\"0em\">)<\/mo><\/mrow><\/msub><mo separator=\"true\">,<\/mo><msub><mi>d<\/mi><mi>i<\/mi><\/msub><mo separator=\"true\">,<\/mo><msub><mi>C<\/mi><mi>i<\/mi><\/msub><mo form=\"postfix\" stretchy=\"false\">)<\/mo><mo>+<\/mo><mi>\u03bb<\/mi><msub><mi>E<\/mi><mi>i<\/mi><\/msub><mo>+<\/mo><msub><mi>T<\/mi><mi>i<\/mi><\/msub><msub><mi>\u03c4<\/mi><mi>i<\/mi><\/msub><mo>+<\/mo><msub><mi>\u03b5<\/mi><mi>i<\/mi><\/msub><\/mrow><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">Y_i=\\mu_0(X_i,\\bar{X}_{N(i)},d_i,C_i)+\\lambda E_i+T_i\\tau_i+\\varepsilon_i<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"> <math data-latex=\"\\tau_i\"><semantics><msub><mi>\u03c4<\/mi><mi>i<\/mi><\/msub><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">\\tau_i<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math> \uff08\u5ffd\u7565\u7f51\u7edc\u5e72\u6270\u7684ITE\uff09\u5728\u6a21\u62df\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u5df2\u77e5\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u5e76\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8ba1\u7b97\u504f\u5dee\u548c\u5747\u65b9\u6839\u8bef\u5dee\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-vertical is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-4fc3f8e1 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u771f\u5b9e\u62d3\u6251\u534a\u5408\u6210\u5b9e\u9a8c<\/strong>\u4e2d\uff0c\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u53d6\u81ea\u771f\u5b9e Facebook \u793e\u4ea4\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c<math data-latex=\"d_i\"><semantics><msub><mi>d<\/mi><mi>i<\/mi><\/msub><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">d_i<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math> \u5206\u5e03\u957f\u5c3e\u4e14\u9ad8\u5ea6\u6570\u8282\u70b9\u5b58\u5728\uff1b \u793e\u533a\u7ed3\u6784\u66f4\u660e\u663e\uff1b \u5c40\u90e8\u805a\u96c6\u6027\u66f4\u5f3a\uff1b \u90bb\u5c45\u4e4b\u95f4\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u76f8\u4f3c\uff1b\u5904\u7406\u53d8\u91cf\u548c\u7ed3\u679c\u53d8\u91cf\u7528\u4eba\u5de5\u673a\u5236\u751f\u6210\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5904\u7406\u6982\u7387\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e2a\u4f53\u7279\u5f81\u3001\u90bb\u5c45\u7279\u5f81\u3001\u5ea6\u6570\u548c\u793e\u533a\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5f62\u6210\u7f51\u7edc\u6df7\u6742\uff1b\u7ed3\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u540c\u65f6\u5305\u542b\u81ea\u8eab\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94\u548c\u90bb\u5c45\u66b4\u9732\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4f53\u73b0\u7f51\u7edc\u5e72\u6270\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"%25e5%25af%25b9%25e6%25af%2594%25e6%258c%2587%25e6%25a0%2587\">\u5bf9\u6bd4\u6307\u6807<\/h4>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-vertical is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-4fc3f8e1 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u7a0b\u5ea6<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u504f\u5dee\uff1a<math data-latex=\"Bias=E(\\hat{\\tau}-\\tau)\"><semantics><mrow><mi>B<\/mi><mi>i<\/mi><mi>a<\/mi><mi>s<\/mi><mo>=<\/mo><mi>E<\/mi><mo form=\"prefix\" stretchy=\"false\">(<\/mo><mover><mi>\u03c4<\/mi><mo stretchy=\"false\" class=\"tml-xshift\" style=\"math-style:normal;math-depth:0;\">^<\/mo><\/mover><mo>\u2212<\/mo><mi>\u03c4<\/mi><mo form=\"postfix\" stretchy=\"false\">)<\/mo><\/mrow><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">Bias=E(\\hat{\\tau}-\\tau)<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5747\u65b9\u6839\u8bef\u5dee\uff1a<math data-latex=\"RMSE=\\sqrt{E[(\\hat{\\tau}-\\tau)^2]}\"><semantics><mrow><mi>R<\/mi><mi>M<\/mi><mi>S<\/mi><mi>E<\/mi><mo>=<\/mo><msqrt><mrow><mi>E<\/mi><mo form=\"prefix\" stretchy=\"false\">[<\/mo><mo form=\"prefix\" stretchy=\"false\">(<\/mo><mover><mi>\u03c4<\/mi><mo stretchy=\"false\" class=\"tml-xshift\" style=\"math-style:normal;math-depth:0;\">^<\/mo><\/mover><mo>\u2212<\/mo><mi>\u03c4<\/mi><msup><mo form=\"postfix\" stretchy=\"false\">)<\/mo><mn>2<\/mn><\/msup><mo form=\"postfix\" stretchy=\"false\" lspace=\"0em\" rspace=\"0em\">]<\/mo><\/mrow><\/msqrt><\/mrow><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">RMSE=\\sqrt{E[(\\hat{\\tau}-\\tau)^2]}<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-vertical is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-4fc3f8e1 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bca\u65ad\u4e0e\u8fb9\u754c\u5206\u6790\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u4f20\u8f93\u6210\u672c\uff1a\u5224\u522b\u5339\u914d\u96be\u5ea6\u4e0e\u7a33\u5065\u6027\uff08\u6210\u672c\u9ad8\u65f6\uff0c\u8868\u793a\u5dee\u5f02\u5927\uff0c\u4f9d\u8d56\u5916\u63a8\uff0c\u4e0d\u591f\u7a33\u5065\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6709\u6548\u5bf9\u7167\u6837\u672c\u91cf ESS\uff1a\u5224\u522b\u91cd\u53e0\/\u652f\u6301\u5ea6<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6700\u5927\u8d1f\u8f7d\uff1a\u5224\u522b\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5bf9\u7167\u6837\u672c\u627f\u62c5\u4e86\u591a\u5c11\u5339\u914d\u6743\u91cd\uff08\u6743\u91cd\u96c6\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4f20\u8f93\u524d\u540e\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u5747\u503c\u5dee SMD\uff1a\u4e24\u4e2a\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u6539\u5584\u60c5\u51b5<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u62d3\u6251\u6270\u52a8\u4e0b\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u6f02\u79fb\uff1a\u7f51\u7edc\u6270\u52a8\uff08\u8fb9\u91cd\u8fde\uff09\u540e\u4f30\u8ba1\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u672a\u89c2\u6d4b\u6df7\u6742\u654f\u611f\u6027\u533a\u95f4\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u8fd8\u6709\u9690\u85cf\u6df7\u6742\uff0c\u7ed3\u8bba\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u9760\uff08\u8fdc\u79bb 0\uff0c\u7ed3\u8bba\u7a33\u5065\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"%25e5%25af%25b9%25e6%25af%2594%25e6%2596%25b9%25e6%25b3%2595%25e4%25b8%258e%25e7%25bb%2593%25e6%259e%259c\">\u5bf9\u6bd4\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0e\u7ed3\u679c<\/h4>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Naive<\/td><td>\u540c\u4e00\u66b4\u9732\u5185\u5904\u7406\u7ec4\u4e0e\u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\u76f4\u63a5\u5747\u503c\u5dee<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">IPW<\/td><td>\u56fa\u5b9a\u66b4\u9732\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e2a\u4f53\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u9006\u6982\u7387\u52a0\u6743<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">OR<\/td><td>\u56fa\u5b9a\u66b4\u9732\u4f7f\u7528\u8c03\u6574\u8868\u793a\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u56de\u5f52<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">OT-no-exp<\/td><td>\u5ffd\u7565\u66b4\u9732\u7684\u6700\u4f18\u4f20\u8f93\u5339\u914d<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">OT-match<\/td><td>\u5728\u66b4\u9732\u5185\u505a\u6700\u4f18\u4f20\u8f93\uff0c\u65e0\u6b8b\u5dee\u5316\u6821\u6b63<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">OT-no-web<\/td><td>\u4e0d\u4f7f\u7528\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ec5\u4fdd\u7559\u4e2a\u4f53\u534f\u53d8\u91cf<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\"><strong>\u672c\u6587\u65b9\u6cd5<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>\u66b4\u9732\u7ea6\u675f\u3001\u5bb9\u91cf\u4e0a\u9650\u4f20\u8f93\u4e0e\u6b8b\u5dee\u5316\u6821\u6b63<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u91cd\u590d24\u6b21\uff0c\u6307\u6807\u4e3aRMSE(Bias)\uff0cVariance=<math data-latex=\"MSE^2-Bias^2\"><semantics><mrow><mi>M<\/mi><mi>S<\/mi><msup><mi>E<\/mi><mn>2<\/mn><\/msup><mo>\u2212<\/mo><mi>B<\/mi><mi>i<\/mi><mi>a<\/mi><msup><mi>s<\/mi><mn>2<\/mn><\/msup><\/mrow><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">MSE^2-Bias^2<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table alignleft\" id=\"interact-table-7169fc\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td>\u573a\u666f<\/td><td>Naive<\/td><td>IPW<\/td><td>OR<\/td><td>OT-no-exp<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">OT-match<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">OT-no-web<\/td><td>\u672c\u6587\u65b9\u6cd5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u5f3a\u7f51\u7edc\u6df7\u6742<\/td><td>1.763 (1.745)<\/td><td>0.544 (0.487)<\/td><td>0.455 (0.420)<\/td><td>0.803 (0.784)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0.851 (0.839)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0.637 (0.608)<\/td><td><strong>0.369 (0.330)<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u9ad8\u540c\u8d28\u6027<\/td><td>1.677 (1.662)<\/td><td>0.536 (0.485)<\/td><td>0.362 (0.326)<\/td><td>0.647 (0.635)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0.777 (0.761)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0.529 (0.505)<\/td><td><strong>0.282 (0.236)<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u5f31\u91cd\u53e0\u6d88\u878d<\/td><td>1.905 (1.882)<\/td><td>0.783 (0.726)<\/td><td>0.561 (0.522)<\/td><td>1.047 (1.023)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0.966 (0.951)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0.794 (0.759)<\/td><td><strong>0.430 (0.370)<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u771f\u5b9e\u62d3\u6251\u534a\u5408\u6210<\/td><td>1.624 (1.605)<\/td><td>0.682 (0.657)<\/td><td>0.494 (0.478)<\/td><td>0.605 (0.581)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0.816 (0.799)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0.607 (0.591)<\/td><td><strong>0.403 (0.376)<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Naive\uff1a\u8bef\u5dee\u6700\u5927\uff0c\u8bf4\u660e\u7f51\u7edc\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u786e\u5b9e\u5b58\u5728\u663e\u8457\u6df7\u6742<br>IPW\/OR\uff1a\u80fd\u591f\u964d\u4f4e\u8bef\u5dee\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u6df7\u6742\u8f83\u5f3a\u65f6\u4ecd\u4e0d\u5145\u5206<br>OT-no-exp\uff1a\u8de8\u66b4\u9732\u72b6\u6001\u5339\u914d\u7834\u574f\u56e0\u679c\u5bf9\u6bd4\u6027<br>OT-match\uff1a\u5b58\u5728\u8f83\u5927\u504f\u5dee\u3002<br>OT-no-web\uff1a\u53bb\u6389\u7ed3\u6784\u8868\u793a\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u6027\u80fd\u4e0b\u964d<br>\u672c\u6587\u65b9\u6cd5\uff08\u66b4\u9732\u7ea6\u675f\u3001\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u8868\u793a\u3001\u5bb9\u91cf\u4e0a\u9650\u548c\u6b8b\u5dee\u5316\u6821\u6b63\uff09\uff1a\u5728\u56db\u4e2a\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\u5747\u53d6\u5f97\u6700\u4f4e\u5747\u65b9\u6839\u8bef\u5dee<br>\u65b9\u5dee\uff1a<strong>\u5404\u7c7b\u573a\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u65b9\u6cd5\u65b9\u5dee\u5747\u5c0f\u4e8eIPW\u65b9\u6cd5<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"%25e7%2590%2586%25e8%25ae%25ba%25e9%25aa%258c%25e8%25af%2581%25e8%25af%258a%25e6%2596%25ad\">\u7406\u8bba\u9a8c\u8bc1\u8bca\u65ad\uff1a<\/h4>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/xuzbo.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/paper_figure1_theory_diagnostics-1024x576.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-370\" srcset=\"https:\/\/xuzbo.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/paper_figure1_theory_diagnostics-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/xuzbo.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/paper_figure1_theory_diagnostics-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/xuzbo.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/paper_figure1_theory_diagnostics-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/xuzbo.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/paper_figure1_theory_diagnostics-1536x865.png 1536w, https:\/\/xuzbo.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/paper_figure1_theory_diagnostics-2048x1153.png 2048w, https:\/\/xuzbo.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/paper_figure1_theory_diagnostics-1200x676.png 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 1362px) 62vw, 840px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A\uff1a\u5f53\u6e90\u5206\u5e03\u4e0e\u76ee\u6807\u5206\u5e03\u7684<strong>\u8c03\u6574\u8868\u793a\u504f\u79fb<\/strong>\u589e\u5927\u65f6\uff0c\u7eaf\u4f20\u8f93\u8bef\u5dee\u660e\u663e\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u65b9\u6cd5\u57fa\u672c\u7a33\u6001<br>B\uff1a<strong>\u4f30\u8ba1\u504f\u5dee\u9879\u4e0e\u7eaf\u4f20\u8f93\u8bef\u5dee<\/strong>\u8f83\u5f3a\u5bf9\u5e94\u5173\u7cfb<br>C\uff1a<strong>\u65b9\u5dee\u4ee3\u7406\u91cf\u4e0e\u5e73\u65b9\u8bef\u5dee<\/strong>\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb<br>D\uff1a\u6837\u672c\u91cf\u589e\u5927\u65f6\uff0cRMSE\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u8d8b\u52bf\u63a5\u8fd1 <math><semantics><msup><mi>n<\/mi><mrow><mo lspace=\"0em\" rspace=\"0em\">\u2212<\/mo><mn>1<\/mn><\/mrow><\/msup><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">n^{-1}<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math>\uff0c<strong>\u5408\u7406\u7684\u6536\u655b\u8d8b\u52bf<\/strong><br>E\u3001F\uff1a\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u8bef\u5dee\u7684\u6b63\u6001\u8fd1\u4f3c \u548c Wald \u8986\u76d6\u7387\u63a5\u8fd1 95%\uff1a\u5728\u7a33\u5b9a\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e0b\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528\u8fd1\u4f3c\u63a8\u65ad<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"%25e5%2590%2588%25e6%2588%2590%25e7%25bd%2591%25e7%25bb%259c%25e9%25aa%258c%25e8%25af%2581%25e5%258e%258b%25e5%258a%259b%25e6%25b5%258b%25e8%25af%2595%25e4%25b8%258e%25e6%25b6%2588%25e8%259e%258d%25e5%25ae%259e%25e9%25aa%258c\">\u5408\u6210\u7f51\u7edc\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff1a\u538b\u529b\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e0e\u6d88\u878d\u5b9e\u9a8c<\/h4>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"544\" src=\"https:\/\/xuzbo.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/paper_figure2_synthetic_validation-1024x544.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-371\" srcset=\"https:\/\/xuzbo.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/paper_figure2_synthetic_validation-1024x544.png 1024w, https:\/\/xuzbo.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/paper_figure2_synthetic_validation-300x159.png 300w, https:\/\/xuzbo.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/paper_figure2_synthetic_validation-768x408.png 768w, https:\/\/xuzbo.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/paper_figure2_synthetic_validation-1536x816.png 1536w, https:\/\/xuzbo.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/paper_figure2_synthetic_validation-2048x1088.png 2048w, https:\/\/xuzbo.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/paper_figure2_synthetic_validation-1200x637.png 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 1362px) 62vw, 840px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A\uff1a<strong>\u7f51\u7edc\u6df7\u6742\u5f3a\u5ea6<\/strong>\u4e0a\u5347\uff0cNaive\u548cOT-match\u8bef\u5dee\u5feb\u901f\u589e\u5927\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u65b9\u6cd5\u4fdd\u6301\u8f83\u4f4e\u8bef\u5dee<br>B\uff1a\u968f\u7740<strong>\u540c\u8d28\u6027<\/strong>\u589e\u5f3a\uff0c\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u76f8\u5173\u6df7\u6742\u66f4\u660e\u663e<br>C\uff1a<strong>\u6ea2\u51fa\u6548\u5e94<\/strong>\u589e\u5f3a\u65f6\uff0cOT-no-exp \u4ea7\u751f\u660e\u663e\u8bef\u5dee<br>D\uff1a\u66b4\u9732\u533a\u95f4\u6570\u4e0e\u6709\u6548\u5bf9\u7167\u6837\u672c\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u9700\u8981\u6743\u8861<br>E\uff1a\u5f31\u91cd\u53e0\u573a\u666f\u4e0b\u7684<strong>\u6d88\u878d\u5b9e\u9a8c<\/strong><br>F\uff1aOT\u540e\u7684<strong>\u8868\u793a\u5e73\u8861\u60c5\u51b5<\/strong>\uff1a\u6539\u5584\u4e86\u591a\u4e2a\u7ef4\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u5dee\u5f02<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"%25e7%259c%259f%25e5%25ae%259e%25e6%258b%2593%25e6%2589%2591%25e5%258d%258a%25e5%2590%2588%25e6%2588%2590%25e5%25ae%259e%25e9%25aa%258c\">\u771f\u5b9e\u62d3\u6251\u534a\u5408\u6210\u5b9e\u9a8c<\/h4>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"544\" src=\"https:\/\/xuzbo.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/paper_figure3_topology_analysis-1024x544.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-372\" srcset=\"https:\/\/xuzbo.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/paper_figure3_topology_analysis-1024x544.png 1024w, https:\/\/xuzbo.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/paper_figure3_topology_analysis-300x159.png 300w, https:\/\/xuzbo.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/paper_figure3_topology_analysis-768x408.png 768w, https:\/\/xuzbo.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/paper_figure3_topology_analysis-1536x816.png 1536w, https:\/\/xuzbo.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/paper_figure3_topology_analysis-2048x1088.png 2048w, https:\/\/xuzbo.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/paper_figure3_topology_analysis-1200x637.png 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 1362px) 62vw, 840px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A\uff1a\u7f51\u7edc\u5ea6\u5206\u5e03\u5177\u6709\u660e\u663e<strong>\u957f\u5c3e\u7279\u5f81<\/strong>\uff1a\u5927\u591a\u8282\u70b9\u8fde\u63a5\u8fb9\u5c11\uff0c\u8fde\u63a5\u8fb9\u96c6\u4e2d\u4e8e\u5c11\u6570\u8282\u70b9<br>B\uff1a\u672c\u6587\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u771f\u5b9e\u62d3\u6251\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\u4ecd\u7136\u53d6\u5f97\u6700\u4f4eRMSE<br>C\uff1a\u4e0d\u540c\u66b4\u9732\u5c42\u7684\u5904\u7406\u6837\u672c\u3001\u5bf9\u7167\u6837\u672c\u548c\u6709\u6548\u5bf9\u7167\u6837\u672c\u91cf\uff1a\u9ad8\u66b4\u9732\u5355\u5143\u652f\u6301\u4e0d\u8db3<br>D\uff1a\u8fb9\u91cd\u8fde\u6270\u52a8\u4e0b\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u6f02\u79fb\u548c\u66b4\u9732\u6807\u7b7e\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\uff1a\u5f53\u62d3\u6251\u6270\u52a8\u6539\u53d8\u66b4\u9732\u72b6\u6001\u65f6\uff0c\u4f30\u8ba1\u76ee\u6807\u672c\u8eab\u4e5f\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316<br>E\uff1a\u672a\u89c2\u6d4b\u7f51\u7edc\u6df7\u6742\u7684\u654f\u611f\u6027\u533a\u95f4<br>F\uff1a\u771f\u5b9e\u62d3\u6251\u8868\u793a\u4e0a\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u6539\u5584\u60c5\u51b5<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"%25e7%25bb%2593%25e8%25ae%25ba\">\u7ed3\u8bba<\/h4>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56f4\u7ed5\u7f51\u7edc\u5e72\u6270\u4e0b\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u4f30\u8ba1\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u57fa\u4e8e\u66b4\u9732\u7ea6\u675f\u3001\u6700\u4f18\u4f20\u8f93\u548c\u6b8b\u5dee\u5316\u6821\u6b63\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\uff1a\u901a\u8fc7\u66b4\u9732\u6620\u5c04\u660e\u786e\u56e0\u679c\u5bf9\u6bd4\uff0c\u5728\u56fa\u5b9a\u66b4\u9732\u72b6\u6001\u5185\u4f7f\u7528\u5e26\u5bb9\u91cf\u4e0a\u9650\u7684\u6700\u4f18\u4f20\u8f93\u6784\u9020\u5bf9\u7167\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u901a\u8fc7\u4ea4\u53c9\u62df\u5408\u7ed3\u679c\u56de\u5f52\u8fdb\u884c\u6b8b\u5dee\u5316\u6821\u6b63\u3002<br>\u5b9e\u9a8c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5728\u5f3a\u7f51\u7edc\u6df7\u6742\u3001\u9ad8\u540c\u8d28\u6027\u3001\u5f31\u91cd\u53e0\u548c\u771f\u5b9e\u62d3\u6251\u534a\u5408\u6210\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u65b9\u6cd5\u5747\u53d6\u5f97\u6700\u4f4e\u5747\u65b9\u6839\u8bef\u5dee\u3002\u6d88\u878d\u5b9e\u9a8c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8bf4\u660e\uff0c\u5ffd\u7565\u66b4\u9732\u72b6\u6001\u3001\u53bb\u6389\u6b8b\u5dee\u5316\u6821\u6b63\u6216\u4e0d\u4f7f\u7528\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u8868\u793a\u90fd\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u6027\u80fd\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u591a\u9762\u677f\u8bca\u65ad\u56fe\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0d\u4ec5\u80fd\u964d\u4f4e\u4f30\u8ba1\u8bef\u5dee\uff0c\u4e5f\u80fd\u63d0\u4f9b\u6709\u6548\u6837\u672c\u91cf\u3001\u5e73\u8861\u6027\u3001\u62d3\u6251\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u672a\u89c2\u6d4b\u6df7\u6742\u654f\u611f\u6027\u7b49\u8f85\u52a9\u5224\u65ad\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u672c\u65b9\u6cd5\u5e76\u4e0d\u58f0\u79f0\u53ef\u4ee5\u6d88\u9664\u7f51\u7edc\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u4e2d\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4f46\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u660e\u786e\u66b4\u9732\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u4e0b\uff0c\u5c06\u6700\u4f18\u4f20\u8f93\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u5e73\u8861\u80fd\u529b\u4e0e\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u4e2d\u7684\u6b8b\u5dee\u5316\u6821\u6b63\u7ed3\u5408\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u4e3a\u590d\u6742\u7f51\u7edc\u573a\u666f\u4e0b\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u8bc4\u4f30\u548c\u673a\u5236\u5206\u6790\u63d0\u4f9b\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">IPW\u4e0e\u672c\u6587\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u90fd\u57fa\u4e8e<strong>\u518d\u52a0\u6743<\/strong>\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u76ee\u6807\u90fd\u662f\u6784\u9020\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u53ef\u6bd4\u7684\u5bf9\u7167\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u6765\u8fd1\u4f3cRCT<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u56de\u5f52\u7ed3\u5408<\/strong>\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u524d\u8005\u53cc\u91cd\u7a33\u5065\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u540e\u8005\u6b8b\u5dee\u5316\u6821\u6b63<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u524d\u8005\u901a\u8fc7\u503e\u5411\u5f97\u5206\u6a21\u578b\u5b9e\u73b0\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u662f<strong>\u5904\u7406\u6982\u7387\u6821\u6b63<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u540e\u8005\u901a\u8fc7\u8868\u793a\u7a7a\u95f4\u8ddd\u79bb\u5b9e\u73b0\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u662f<strong>\u5206\u5e03\u51e0\u4f55\u5bf9\u9f50<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"%25e5%2590%258e%25e7%25bb%25ad%25e6%2596%25b9%25e5%2590%2591\">\u540e\u7eed\u65b9\u5411<\/h4>\n\n\n<ol 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